New Zealand or Pakistan in the CWC 2023 semis: Who will face India in the Semi-Finals of the ICC World Cup 2023?

The ICC World Cup 2023 has neared its final phases of the league matches with 5 more matches remaining before the commencement of the semi-finals on 15th November 2023. The top 3 teams such as India, South Africa, and Australia have qualified for the semi-finals. However, it remains uncertain whether New Zealand or Pakistan in the CWC 2023 semis will face India. This makes the contest much more interesting and challenging.

Each team gets a fair opportunity to play 9 matches against different teams in this tournament. Out of which, a team must win at least 7 matches for a secure chance to enter the knockouts. Sometimes, a team needs to secure at least 5 to 6 wins to ensure their qualifying chances remain alive.

India is the only unbeaten team in this tournament to qualify for the semi-finals after playing 8 matches.

On the other side, South Africa and Australia have won 6 out of 8 matches with 2nd and 3rd position on the points table. Both these teams are set to play the 2nd semi-finals of this tournament on 16th November 2023 at Eden Gardens, Kolkata.

New Zealand and Pakistan have one match left to determine their fate. This battle for the 4th position has kept the contest captivating for all fans.

New Zealand or Pakistan in the CWC 2023 semis: Crucial Reasons for the Struggle in 4th Position

Black Caps Struggle for the 4th Position:

New Zealand has played 8 matches which include 4 successive wins and 4 losses. Initially, the Blackcaps were dominant by winning 4 consecutive matches against England, Netherlands, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan.

However, the Kiwis started losing 4 matches sequentially to India, Australia, South Africa, and Pakistan.  This resulted in New Zealand declining from being the table toppers to the 4th position.

Additionally, the outcome of the match between New Zealand and Pakistan on 4th November 2023, was declared using the DLS method. The frequent interruption of rains at M. Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru favored Pakistan without playing a complete 50-over game while chasing a huge target. This threatened the chances for the Kiwis to enter the knockout stages.

Pakistan’s Struggle for the 4th Position:

If New Zealand wins against Sri Lanka, it would be a tough challenge for Pakistan to win against the defending champions to enter the semis.

However, the weather conditions at M. Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru, proved to be a spoilsport of the game in recent times. Under such circumstances, the match officials would award each point to both teams without declaring the result. New Zealand would remain in the 4th position with 9 points.

Pakistan just needs to win against England on 11th November 2023 to qualify for the semi-finals. This becomes possible only if the match between New Zealand and Sri Lanka gets abandoned or if Sri Lanka achieves a victory.

New Zealand or Pakistan in the CWC 2023 semis: Intriguing Battle for the 4th Position

It has become evident that either New Zealand or Pakistan can enter the CWC 2023 semis with certain possible chances for each team.

Chances for New Zealand to qualify

Chances for New Zealand to qualify for the CWC 2023 semi-finals: A Crucial Competition

The important clash between New Zealand and Sri Lanka on 9th November 2023 would determine the destiny of the black caps in this tournament.

Eliminated from CWC 2023, the Sri Lankans aim to secure a spot in the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 by winning this match.

New Zealand with a present run rate of +0.398, would aim to win by a huge margin against Sri Lanka to make things much more difficult for Pakistan.

Even if New Zealand loses against Sri Lanka, the Kiwis are still left with the two possible ways to qualify. If Pakistan loses against England and South Africa wins against Afghanistan in the upcoming matches, the equation becomes much clearer. All the 3 teams remain at their own position with 8 points as shown below:

  1. New Zealand – 8 points (4th Position)
  2. Pakistan– 8 points (5th Position)
  3. Afghanistan– 8 Points (6th Position)

The match between New Zealand and Sri Lanka played at M. Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru, favors batsmen during the 2nd innings. New Zealand’s decision to bowl first enhances the winning chances of successfully chasing the high targets at this venue.

Chances for Pakistan to qualify for the CWC 2023 semi-finals: A Crucial Competition

If New Zealand wins against Sri Lanka, it would be a tough challenge for Pakistan to win against the defending champions to enter the semis.

However, the weather conditions at M. Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru, proved to be a spoilsport of the game in recent times. Under such circumstances, both teams would be awarded each point without declaring the result. New Zealand would remain in the 4th position with 9 points.

Pakistan just needs to win against England on 11th November 2023 to qualify for the semi-finals. This becomes possible only if the match between New Zealand and Sri Lanka gets abandoned or if Sri Lanka achieves a victory.

New Zealand or Pakistan in the CWC 2023 semis: Tricky Challenges for Pakistan to qualify

At present, Pakistan keeps its hopes alive of qualifying for semis with a Net-Run-Rate of +0.036. If New Zealand beats Sri Lanka, Pakistan needs to win against England with a superior Net-Run-Rate (NRR) under the following conditions:

  1. New Zealand needs to beat Sri Lanka with a minimum margin. This results in a slight increase in their run rate.
  2. Pakistan needs to beat England by 130 runs or more. Pakistan bowlers can become pressurized to a great extent under these conditions. However, it depends upon the winning margin of New Zealand.
  3. On the other side, Pakistan needs to chase the target within 29 overs at Eden Gardens, Kolkata. The 2nd innings at this venue threatened batsmen to a great extent while chasing a target under 50 overs on a slow pitch.
  4. Additionally, Pakistan batsmen will find themselves in a tough situation to chase any target within 29 overs at this venue.

The Indian cricket team has been in its peak form with its strong batting and bowling lineup. Either New Zealand or Pakistan in the CWC 2023 semis, would get a chance to face the unbeaten team of this tournament.

Even if New Zealand or Pakistan manage to enter the CWC 2023 semis, there is still another challenge ahead of them on 15th November 2023.

Can India deliver another impressive performance against their opposition to qualify for the finals of the CWC 2023 tournament?

Or

Can New Zealand or Pakistan in the CWC 2023 Semis,  survive the strong bowling attack of the Indian cricket team to enter the finals?

The answers to the interesting questions will be known during the 1st semi-final of CWC 2023 on 15th November 2023…

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