People who try to bet in sports are usually fans, trying to use their sports knowledge for wagering advantage. Especially during big tournaments like Premiere League, T20 League, One day International (ODI), and many more. During these big games, Sports fan put their years of sports knowledge to use.
At times, a punter may win one or two bets, or even more, if they keep it simple and bet lower, however with mathematical statistics these odds can be increased. Having a clear understanding of math behind any game gives you an advantage while betting.
Without any further ado, let’s get into the basics of Sports betting math.
House Always Wins.
This sounds like a cardinal rule said over and over again. But the fact is players usually are fans looking to support their favorites and, in that case, house wins at ease. First thing first is bankroll management, with suitable bankroll management, you are aware of what to bet in a week, month. Furthermore, with math, you can easily figure out the appropriate bet.
In general house edge is up to 5%, being a profitable company bookmakers allow bettors to win the bet to keep the boat rolling. Thus, with math, you can fix your spot among the winners.
Understanding House Edge (VIG)
Traditional bookmakers earn their profit via vigorish also known as, under-juice, the cut, the margin, or Vig. This is generally the profit earned by the bookies on every bet placed.
Let’s take, for instance, you are going to bet on a match:
Cowboys’ vs Redskins,
Both of the team have same chances of winning also called evenly matched. Now mathematically speaking the team having 50-50 chances of winning should have the odds around: 2.00, 1/1 or evens. However, that’s not how a bookmaker offers odds to the market. More likely the odds will be set as: 1.92 or 1.94 for Cowboys’ and 1.91 for Redskins.
This gap between the supposed odds and the odds specified by bookmakers is called Vig. The best way to understand through, sports betting math is to assume both bets in equal options in any scenario. Even in other betting markets like Over/under, map betting, the assumption works the same way. Through the math, you can see the odds stacked against you.
There are chances of bookies losing in an individual market, even with Vig applied however, with a wide range of betting markets available; bookmarkers are normally covered through Vig.
Sports Betting Odds.
If a punter wins 52.4% of his /her bets, they will break even. I am sure you have seen these lines in sports betting articles or you may have heard people say it out loud. So, what does it mean to break even?
Let’s break it down in simple terms. Suppose you have made a total of 21 bets, hence to break even you need to win at least eleven of them and lose ten of them.
Say, you are a big sports fan and wish to bet on Cowboys vs the Redskins. On the odds of –110, you bet on 10 games, winning six and losing four. That is a 60% betting record. The overall profit is $160 from your $600 profit from six winnings whereas, $440 from four losses.
Now imagine you lost five-match and won five matches. A betting record of 50% you spend $1,100, won $500, and lost $550. This is where Vig corners you. Your wallet is drained by $50. Hence wining half the time doesn’t even come close to breaking even.
Applying Sports betting math on Bonus offers.
Everything that shines is not gold. From afar, the bonus is equivalent to finding free gold. But if you apply simple math, you will differentiate the favorable bonus from the less favorable ones.
For instance: bookmakers offer $200 while a second one offers, $300. Usually, you would opt for the latter one, but before doing, let’s get the sports betting math in the scene. Although it doesn’t concern odds, punters need to be well aware of the differences.
Let’s say, first bonus is a 100% match and second is 50% match. Then you will have to deposit $200 to get a bonus whereas, $600 to get the second one. That’s not all, a bettor needs to consider wagering requirements as well before choosing the suitable bonus.
Choosing the Right Bet
The key is to learn odds, with that, you will be able to develop strategies that help you choose between matches, markets, selections, and more. If a certain bookmaker forwards 1.62 odds for A vs B match and X vs Y match.
It is best to consider other bookmaker’s odds before you make the final conclusion. There is no shortcut to finding the best odds, it takes a lot of practice, patience and calculation.